A senior British military adviser has warned that Russia’s use of “selective ceasefires” in Ukraine reflects a strategy of calculated deception rather than a genuine shift toward peace, arguing that Moscow’s conduct on the ground continues to demonstrate a sustained commitment to escalation and long-term conflict.

UK Senior Military Advisor Colonel Joby Rimmer said Russia’s approach to temporary pauses in fighting is being driven by political calculation, military convenience and domestic signalling rather than any meaningful desire to end the war in Europe.

“Russia’s actions, not its rhetoric, demonstrate the absence of any genuine commitment to a lasting peace in Europe.”
Joby Rimmer

The UK government reaffirmed its position that Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity remain non-negotiable within its internationally recognised borders.

British officials said they support continued efforts led by Washington to achieve what they described as a “just and lasting peace”, while stressing that Ukraine has consistently shown willingness to engage constructively in negotiations. According to UK assessments, Kyiv has repeatedly agreed to comprehensive ceasefire proposals in coordination with international partners.

However, Colonel Rimmer cautioned that Russia has not responded in good faith to these initiatives, instead pursuing what he described as a “non-committal, selective approach” designed to serve short-term strategic interests.

He pointed to recent limited ceasefire announcements as evidence of this pattern, arguing that such pauses were not intended to reduce violence broadly but were instead timed around specific military and political considerations, including efforts to shield high-profile domestic events from disruption.

“The limited ceasefire announced last week was not a step toward peace, but a pause timed to protect domestic political symbolism from increasingly capable Ukrainian long-range and unmanned strike capabilities.”
Joby Rimmer

According to the UK analysis, the Kremlin’s decision to suspend certain military operations selectively while rejecting broader ceasefire frameworks underscores what London sees as a fundamentally instrumental approach to de-escalation.

Officials also linked Russia’s battlefield strategy to deeper structural shifts within its domestic economy, arguing that the war in Ukraine has become increasingly central to the functioning of the Russian state.

Colonel Rimmer said Russia’s economy is now heavily dependent on the continuation of the conflict, with defence production, military procurement and wartime mobilisation playing a growing role in sustaining industrial output and employment. “This posture is closely linked to a growing structural challenge for the Russian system: an economy that is becoming ever more dependent on the continuation of war,” he stated.

He added that the war has become embedded within Russia’s political and economic architecture, shaping employment patterns, industrial activity and state revenue flows, while also reinforcing the Kremlin’s domestic political narrative.

UK officials emphasised that while they do not take satisfaction in the economic strain experienced by Russian citizens, the trajectory of Russia’s economy has direct implications for regional and global security.

Recent economic indicators cited by British analysts suggest slowing growth, declining investment and weakening consumer demand within Russia, alongside rising fiscal pressure as defence spending continues to climb and state revenues tighten.

Even where short-term relief is provided through commodity earnings, officials argue these gains are insufficient to correct deeper structural imbalances created by sustained wartime mobilisation.

Colonel Rimmer warned that this dynamic is creating a dangerous feedback loop in which economic strain reinforces militarisation. As civilian sectors weaken, the state becomes increasingly dependent on defence procurement and war-related industries to maintain stability.

Russia’s Economy Increasingly Built Around War, Western Officials Warn

Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine is increasingly reshaping its internal economy, with major sectors now seen as having direct material interests in the continuation of the war. These include defence manufacturers, recruitment structures, regional patronage networks, sanctioned intermediaries, security services, and state-connected businesses.

The result, according to analysts, is an economy being reorganised around coercion, mobilisation, and confrontation.

Moreover, concerns are growing that this dependence on war is increasing risks across the wider OSCE area. A state facing fiscal strain may rely more heavily on coercive bargaining and brinkmanship.

In such a situation, officials warn, weakening conventional economic strength could push a government toward greater use of asymmetric tools. These may include cyber activity, sabotage, disinformation, political interference, nuclear signalling, attacks on critical infrastructure, and sanctions evasion.

The situation is not being described “as a matter of inefficiency, but of deliberate choice.” The Kremlin is said to bear sole responsibility for the war, having chosen to violate Ukraine’s sovereignty, reject peaceful settlement, and pursue imperial ambition over the welfare of its population. Its continued refusal to engage seriously in a ceasefire is presented as a direct consequence of these decisions.

United Kingdom has stated it will continue to expose what it calls the reality behind Moscow’s claims. British officials maintain that until Russia withdraws its forces, ends its attacks, and returns to compliance with its OSCE commitments, there is no basis to believe it has a genuine interest in lasting peace.