Ghana’s battle against inflation could be heading into a more encouraging phase as professional services firm Deloitte projects that headline inflation will decline to 4.90% in July 2026, bringing it back below the 5% mark after a temporary rise in June.
The forecast has injected renewed optimism into the country’s economic outlook, particularly after inflation climbed for the third consecutive month in June to 5.3%, raising concerns that the period of low inflation could be losing momentum.
According to Deloitte’s latest West Africa Inflation Update, the anticipated decline will be driven primarily by improving food supplies as Ghana enters its main harvest season, alongside easing global oil prices and the continued appreciation of the cedi.
If the forecast materialises, it would reinforce confidence that the recent increase in consumer prices was temporary rather than the beginning of a prolonged inflationary trend.
Harvest Season Expected to Bring Food Price Relief
Food prices remain one of the biggest drivers of inflation in Ghana, making any improvement in domestic food production especially significant.
Deloitte expects food inflation to ease and stabilise in July as farmers begin harvesting crops across the country. Increased availability of locally produced food is expected to reduce supply pressures that pushed prices higher in previous months.
The June inflation report showed that year on year food inflation increased to 3.9%, up from 3.3% in May. The rise reflected higher prices for locally produced food items, including commodities such as ginger, while increased transport and energy costs also pushed food prices higher.
With fresh produce entering markets in larger quantities, analysts believe households could begin experiencing lower food costs over the coming weeks.
The expected improvement in food supply comes at a critical time as consumers continue to grapple with the cost of living despite the country’s broader macroeconomic recovery.
Stronger Cedi and Lower Oil Prices Offer Additional Support
Beyond food prices, Deloitte believes Ghana’s non food inflation will also improve significantly during July.
The firm attributes this expectation to declining global oil prices and the sustained strength of the Ghana cedi against major international currencies.
Lower fuel prices reduce transportation and production costs across several sectors of the economy, while a stronger local currency makes imported goods cheaper and eases pressure on businesses that rely on foreign inputs.
These developments are expected to slow price increases across many categories of consumer spending.
Although non-food inflation rose sharply to 6.3% in June from 4.1% in May, Deloitte believes current market conditions provide a solid foundation for inflation to moderate once again.
Bank of Ghana Expected to Maintain Policy Rate
Despite forecasting lower inflation, Deloitte expects the Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee to leave the policy rate unchanged during its July meeting.
According to the report, policymakers are likely to adopt a cautious but accommodative approach that balances inflation risks with the need to preserve exchange rate stability and support ongoing economic recovery.
Keeping interest rates unchanged would allow the central bank to monitor whether June’s inflation increase was temporary while avoiding unnecessary pressure on businesses and consumers.
The expected decision also reflects growing confidence that underlying inflationary pressures remain manageable despite recent fluctuations.
June Inflation Revealed Mixed Signals
While the overall inflation rate increased in June, some indicators suggested that price pressures may already be beginning to soften.
Consumer prices increased by only 0.2% on a month on month basis, compared with 1.1% recorded in May. The slower monthly increase was largely attributed to falling global gasoline prices, which reduced domestic energy costs.
This moderation indicates that although annual inflation moved higher, the pace of monthly price increases slowed considerably.
However, inflation for locally produced goods continued to accelerate, rising to 6.7% from 5.0% in May. These locally produced goods accounted for 86.6% of headline inflation, highlighting that domestic supply factors remain the dominant source of price increases.
Imported inflation remained relatively subdued at 2.3%, reflecting the benefits of the stronger cedi and improving external conditions.
Transport and Education Costs Continue to Bite
Despite improving conditions in some sectors, several areas of the economy continued to record elevated inflation in June.
Transport inflation rose sharply to 9.1%, reversing the negative 2.8% recorded in May. The increase followed the nationwide 20% adjustment in public transport fares that took effect on June 2, placing additional financial pressure on commuters.
Education services inflation climbed to 8.7%, driven by higher tuition fees, increased operational expenses for schools and rising costs of educational materials and utilities.
Restaurants and accommodation services also experienced stronger inflation, rising to 8.2% from 7.2% in May as businesses passed higher operating costs on to consumers.
Meanwhile, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels inflation eased from 11.8% in May to 7.9% in June following lower utility tariff adjustments during the second quarter of 2026.
Below 5% Inflation Could Strengthen Economic Confidence
A return to inflation below 5% would represent another milestone in Ghana’s economic recovery and strengthen confidence among businesses, investors and consumers.
Lower inflation improves purchasing power, supports household budgets and provides greater certainty for businesses making investment decisions.
Combined with a stable currency and expectations of steady monetary policy, Deloitte’s forecast suggests Ghana may be entering another period of improving price stability after June’s temporary setback.
Attention will now shift to the official inflation figures for July, which will determine whether Ghana can sustain its remarkable progress in containing inflation while maintaining the momentum of its broader economic recovery.
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