Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director Mussa Dankwa has released a poll that puts Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson within three points of NPP flagbearer Dr Mahamudu Bawumia in the Ashanti and Eastern regions.
The September 2026 national tracking poll tests the 2028 contest in the two regions that have long been the NPP’s strongest territory. The survey sampled a total of 2,387 voters from the regions, of which 1548 voters were from the Ashanti region and 839 from the Eastern region.
Dr Bawumia leads 46 percent to 43 percent when Kennedy Agyapong runs, a gap Mr Dankwa describes as within the poll’s margin of error. The NPP has already elected Dr Bawumia as its flagbearer, while the NDC has yet to choose one, and the Finance Minister, tipped as its frontrunner, has not confirmed that he will contest.
“Dr Bawumia and Ato Forson are almost neck and neck (within the poll’s margin of error) if Ken contests.”
Mussa Dankwa, Pollster and Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics
Poll Puts Forson Within Reach in NPP Backyard
Mussa Dankwa’s figures show Dr Bawumia on 46 percent and Dr Ato Forson on 43 percent. Kennedy Agyapong takes 8 percent, Alan Kyerematen 2 percent, Nana Bediako 1 percent, and other candidates 1 percent. The listed shares add up to 101 percent, which points to rounding.
For a candidate who carries the NPP banner, the closeness is the story. Ashanti and Eastern are the regions where the party expects its widest margins, and Dr Ato Forson sits three points behind there.
The Gap Holds Without Agyapong
Removing Kennedy Agyapong from the ballot changes little at the top. Dr Bawumia rises to 48 percent and Dr Ato Forson to 45 percent, so the three-point gap stays. Kyerematen and Bediako double their shares to 4 percent and 2 percent.
Mussa Dankwa reads that movement as support for a theory he has advanced. Most of Kennedy Agyapong’s voters, in his view, may not back Dr Bawumia even if the former Assin Central Member of Parliament stays out of the race.
Agyapong’s Voters Look Elsewhere
A second scenario pits Dr Bawumia against NDC chairman Asiedu Nketia. Dr Bawumia leads with 49 percent to Mr Asiedu Nketia’s 38 percent, with Kennedy Agyapong on 7 percent, Kyerematen and other candidates on 2 percent each, and Nana Bediako on 1 percent.
Without Kennedy Agyapong, Dr Bawumia reaches 50 percent, Mr Asiedu Nketia 40 percent, Mr Alan Kyerematen 6 percent, Nana Bediako 2 percent, and others 2 percent.
The breakdown of Kennedy Agyapong’s supporters stands out. If he leaves the race, only 10 percent of his voters move to Dr Bawumia. Mr Asiedu Nketia collects 24 percent, Alan Kyerematen 51 percent and Nana Bediako 17 percent. Those shares sum to 102 percent, again a sign of rounding.
“NPP candidate fails to secure the majority of Ken’s 7% share of the vote from these two strongholds, a development that should be a major concern for the party whether Ken contests or not.”
Mussa Dankwa, Pollster and Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics
Nketia Widens the Gap
The comparison between the two NDC options matters for the party’s own choice. Against Dr Ato Forson, Dr Bawumia leads by three points in both settings. Against Mr Asiedu Nketia, his lead grows to 11 points with Kennedy Agyapong in the race and 10 points without him.
Dr Ato Forson therefore performs five points better than Mr Asiedu Nketia against Dr Bawumia in the NPP’s own backyard when Kennedy Agyapong contests.
Ato Forson Leads the NDC Field
Respondents in the two regions also ranked the NDC contenders. Dr Ato Forson leads with 47 percent, followed by Mr Asiedu Nketia on 28 percent. Chief of Staff Julius Debrah and Vice President Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang each draw 7 percent, and Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu takes 6 percent.
Joshua Alabi and Eric Opoku each score 2 percent, and Emmanuel Armah Kofi-Buah scores 1 percent. In a head-to-head race between the two frontrunners, Dr Ato Forson wins 60 percent to 40 percent. The result echoes earlier surveys, which found Dr Ato Forson leading the NDC race and beating Dr Bawumia in a national head-to-head poll.
What the Numbers Mean for 2028
Mussa Dankwa frames the regional picture as a worrying development for the opposition New Patriotic Party in its backyard. Mr Dankwa warned earlier that the party faces an uphill battle in the 2028 election race, and these regional figures add detail to that warning.
Dr Bawumia still leads in every scenario in the two regions. Whether the gap holds will depend on who the NDC picks and on where Kennedy Agyapong’s supporters finally go.
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