A high-level delegation from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has left Guinea-Bissau after President Umaro Sissoco Embalo reportedly threatened to expel the mission. The team had been in the country to mediate an ongoing political dispute over delayed general elections.
ECOWAS had deployed its representatives from February 21-28 to facilitate a “political consensus” on conducting elections. Initially scheduled for November 2024, the elections were postponed by Embalo, who later announced a new date of November 30, 2025. However, the opposition rejected the delay, arguing that Embalo’s term should have ended last week. A Supreme Court ruling extended his tenure until September 2025, further intensifying political tensions.
In a statement, ECOWAS confirmed its delegation had met with President Embalo, opposition figures, and civil society groups to reach a settlement on the election timeline. The mission had also worked alongside the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) to draft a roadmap for the 2025 elections, which they had begun presenting to stakeholders for approval.
However, the delegation was forced to leave “in the early morning of 1st March, following threats by [President] Umaro Sissoco Embalo to expel it.” ECOWAS did not provide further details on the nature of these threats, and Embalo has yet to publicly respond to the allegations.
The departure of the ECOWAS team leaves Guinea-Bissau at a critical political crossroads. ECOWAS stated that it will now present its findings to the regional body’s leadership, along with recommendations for an “inclusive and peaceful election.” Embalo was elected in December 2019 for a five-year term, but the dispute over when his mandate officially ends has heightened instability in a country with a long history of military coups.
Embalo claims to have survived two coup attempts, including one in December 2023 that resulted in a violent standoff between national and presidential guards. In response, he dissolved the opposition-controlled parliament, accusing lawmakers of inaction.
The political opposition has remained defiant. On February 27, they called for a nationwide strike to mark what they claimed was the legal end of Embalo’s presidency. In response, the government deployed security forces across the capital, signaling growing tensions between rival factions.
Russia Strengthens Ties With Guinea-Bissau
As Western nations closely monitor Guinea-Bissau’s political turbulence, Embalo has sought alternative alliances. Last week, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to explore potential economic and security partnerships. Russia has increasingly become the preferred security partner for several African nations, often replacing traditional allies like France and the United States.
Guinea-Bissau, a nation rich in natural resources, faces economic uncertainty compounded by political instability. The country relies heavily on cashew exports, which account for 90% of its foreign earnings and support 80% of its population. However, erratic rainfall disrupted the harvest, widening the fiscal deficit to 7.6% of GDP. Inflation, however, remains low at 5.7%, better than a regional average of 20%.
Despite expected modest economic growth of 5% in 2024, Guinea-Bissau struggles with mounting public debt, standing at 77.8% of GDP. The country’s unsustainable pension system further drains government finances, while political uncertainty deters foreign investment in fisheries and renewable energy.
Climate change has also exacerbated economic hardship, with coastal communities and agriculture sectors increasingly vulnerable to flooding and soil degradation. Poverty has been rising since 2018, affecting 69% of rural households. While inflation is projected to decrease to 4.3% in 2024, potential fluctuations in global oil prices and cashew market instability pose continued risks.
Stabilizing Guinea-Bissau’s economy will require governance reforms, modernization of the cashew sector, and investment in climate resilience. Without addressing these systemic issues, the country’s long-term economic prospects remain uncertain.
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