Ghana’s oil reserves currently in the ground, is likely to hover around 3.0 billion barrels from 2.5 billion barrels as at January 2021, factoring the recent Eni oil discovery on its Eban exploration prospect in CTP Block 4, offshore Ghana announced in July 2021.
With such a significant oil find from the Eban-1x well in the Cape Three Points (CTP) Block 4, and an estimated potential of between 500 and 700 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe), Ghana’s oil deposits is expected to rise significantly begging for exploration and development.
This brings total oil reserves in the country’s Jubilee and TEN fields at approximately 3.4 billion barrels in the ground yet to be developed for commercial production, indicating about 87 per cent of the country’s oil reserves left. Such huge potential reserves means the country could benefit hugely from its oil resource if enough investments are channeled into its upstream sector.
Fitch Solutions, in a report released early this year pegged Ghana’s undeveloped oil reserves at 2.5 billion barrels, representing 86 per cent of the total reserves at the time, supposing no new discoveries were made.
“So far, just 400 million bbl of oil (gross) has been produced from the Jubilee and TEN fields, out of the 2.9 billion barrels in place– representing 14% of potential production.”
Fitch Solutions
However, additional oil production from the three oil fields- Jubilee, TEN, Sankofa between January and September, 2021 brings total oil produced to about 441.53 million barrels of oil since commercial production of oil began in 2011.
Production throughout the year has been subdued from an output of 51.43 million barrels as at September 2020 to 41.53 million barrels in the same period in 2021. This is attributed to the adverse impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on upstream operations in 2020 which delayed work in the Greater Jubilee and TEN Fields.
Downside Risks in Ghana’s Upstream Petroleum Sector
Currently, business as usual in the country’s oil fields are being threatened. Downside risks rather prevail in upstream petroleum business as investments for fossil fuel production continue to shrink, and some oil majors are already responding by divesting away from fossil fuel production.
A case in point is Exxon Mobil’s recent exit from the country’s upstream petroleum sector which it owned 80 per cent stake, now pending the replacement of a new operator to assume operations. Exxon has been named among a number of European IOCs without intentions to continue developing unsanctioned reserves on the continent, according to GlobalData.
Aker Energy’s previously announced anticipated boost from the Pecan Field projected to come on stream in 2025 now hangs in the balance as new deals are in the pipeline: GNPC’s purchase of 37 per cent stake in the Deep Water Tano/Cape Three Points (DWT/CTP) operated by Aker Energy.
According to Fitch Solutions, the Pecan field has a production potential of 110,000 barrels per day, thus wielding the key to the country’s oil future. The field is an ultra-deepwater play in the DWT/CTP block offshore Ghana and is estimated to contain about 334 million barrels of oil equivalents.
However, development plans hinted by other IOCs in the upstream sector provides some sort of relief. Tullow Oil is hoping to generate $7 billion of operating cash flow over the next 10 years by focusing over 90 per cent of its investment in its assets in West Africa, the bulk of those in Ghana.
The Jubilee field has around 2 billion barrels of oil initially in place and to date Tullow has produced less than half of the expected ultimate recovery. This provides impetus for the Africa-focused oil company to increase its investments in the country’s oil production.
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