Emmanuel Macron has won the first round of the French election and far-right rival, Marine Le Pen, will fight him for the Presidency for a second time.
With 97% of the results counted, Emmanuel Macron had 27.6% of the vote, Marine Le Pen, 23.41% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 21.95%.
“Make no mistake, nothing is decided,” Mr. Macron told cheering supporters. In the end, he won a convincing first-round victory, but opinion polls have suggested that the run-off could be much closer. Ms. Le Pen on the other hand also called on every non-Macron voter to join her and “put France back in order”.
Veteran far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon polled even better than five years ago and now has the unlikely role of kingmaker. “You must not give a single vote to Marine Le Pen,” he warned his supporters. But unlike other candidates, he pointedly did not back the President. Later in the evening, Mélenchon activists gathered outside his campaign Headquarters thinking he might even come second, but it was not to be.
Making up more than a fifth of the vote, Mélenchon voters could decide the final round of this election, yet many of them may just sit the second round out and abstain.
A Breakdown of the votes
Twelve candidates were in the run, but those were only three (Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon) who polled more than 10%. Many voters appeared to embrace the idea of tactical or “useful” voting, deciding that the other nine candidates have no hope of making the run-off. Several of the nine had little chance anyway, but the 2022 Presidential election will be partly remembered for the disaster that befell the two old parties that used to run France; the Republicans and Socialists. They sank almost without trace, with Socialist, Anne Hidalgo falling below 2%.
It was only a few months ago that Valérie Pécresse was still in the race for the right-wing Republicans. She performed so badly that her party could not even scrape the 5% needed to claim its election costs. This is potentially terrible news for a party already tearing itself apart. Parties that fail to reach 5% only get €800,000 (£670,000) of their campaign funding covered by the state, and the Republicans might have paid out far more than that.
Run-off Campaign Starts now
A renewed battle for votes is underway. Marine Le Pen can count on supporters of Eric Zemmour, whose more hardline nationalism won his fourth place with 7% of the votes. Nationalist, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, has also backed Le Pen. She can already count on an impressive 33% of the entire vote.
Mr. Macron’s team is planning a series of big rallies and major TV appearances. Most of the other candidates on the left have backed him, as has Valérie Pécresse, but former Socialist Candidate, Ségolène Royal, disclosed that the President now has to “earn” victory.
What the Polls are Predicting
Ifop Pollster, François Dabi, intimated that his company’s 51%-49% estimate for the run-off was the closest they had ever predicted. An Elabe Poll put the gap at 52%-48% and an Ipsos Poll suggested it was wider still.
Addressing his supporters, Mr. Macron looked a relieved man and he promised to work harder than in the first part of the campaign. He only started campaigning eight days before the voting, as his mind was more focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“When the extreme right in all its forms represents so much of our country, we cannot feel that things are going well.”
French President, Emmanuel Macron
