The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has appealed for USD 110 million to protect 4.9 million people from the potentially severe humanitarian consequences of the developing 2026–2027 El Niño.
The funding appeal is aimed at enabling humanitarian agencies to act before climate-related emergencies escalate, with IOM planning to strengthen early warning systems, support communities facing heightened displacement risks, pre-position essential relief supplies and help authorities respond rapidly when people are forced to move.
The appeal comes as the latest forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicate, for the first time, a near 100% probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027. The forecast has heightened concerns over the potential humanitarian consequences of a prolonged climate event unfolding against the backdrop of a world that is already significantly warmer than during previous El Niño cycles.
IOM warned that the developing El Niño could therefore become a major driver of humanitarian needs and population movement if governments and humanitarian organisations are unable to act early.
According to Deputy Director General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), Ugochi Daniels, “communities facing repeated climate shocks are often the first to recognize the warning signs. But without the right support, they cannot always act in time.”
“Forecasts give us information we can act on. Flexible funding allows us to anticipate risks, strengthen preparedness, and get support where it is needed most, helping people stay safe in their communities where possible, and helping those who need to move do so safely and with dignity.”
Ugochi Daniels
This is particularly significant for regions where climate shocks are already contributing to displacement and worsening food insecurity. Across parts of Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and selected areas of the Middle East and North Africa, vulnerable communities face the possibility of weather extremes compounding existing economic and social pressures.
Previous El Niño events demonstrate the potential scale of the challenge.
According to the World Food Programme, the 2015–2016 El Niño, one of the strongest such events on record, affected more than 60 million people worldwide through drought, flooding and other climate-related shocks. The experience demonstrated how climate variability can rapidly translate into humanitarian crises when communities lack the resources and institutional capacity to prepare.
More recently, the 2023–2024 El Niño generated severe impacts in several regions, including Southern Africa, where nearly 68 million people were affected by drought.
The consequences were particularly serious for communities dependent on rain-fed agriculture and livestock. Prolonged dry conditions can destroy crops, reduce pasture and water availability and undermine household incomes, creating conditions in which people may be compelled to migrate in search of food, employment and basic services.
According to IOM, the lesson from previous crises is that humanitarian intervention cannot wait until disaster has already struck.
The organisation is therefore seeking to shift more resources towards anticipatory action, using climate forecasts and displacement analysis to identify areas where risks are likely to intensify and enabling humanitarian partners to intervene before conditions deteriorate.
IOM is already part of inter-agency anticipatory action frameworks in 12 countries considered particularly vulnerable to climate-related shocks. In 2025, early support delivered through these mechanisms reached nearly 313,000 people in Haiti, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria and the Philippines ahead of forecast hazards.
The organisation now wants to expand these efforts as the 2026–2027 El Niño develops, particularly in communities where climate risks intersect with existing displacement pressures.
IOM Targets Early Warning, Preparedness and Safer Movement
Under the USD 110 million appeal, IOM plans to combine displacement data with weather and climate forecasts to determine where populations are most exposed and where early intervention could prevent humanitarian conditions from worsening.
A central component of the strategy will be strengthening people-centred early warning systems that can alert both authorities and communities to approaching hazards and provide sufficient time for evacuation where necessary.
Such systems could prove particularly important in areas vulnerable to sudden flooding, extreme heat or other climate-related emergencies. Early warnings can allow communities to protect livestock and household assets, move vulnerable people to safer locations and organise emergency assistance before roads and other access routes become impassable.
The organisation also plans to help governments improve contingency planning through training and preparedness exercises, while pre-positioning relief supplies closer to communities considered at risk.
In addition, the pre-positioning of essential items is intended to ensure that humanitarian assistance can reach affected populations quickly if an emergency cuts off access or causes conditions to deteriorate rapidly.
IOM will work with national and local authorities, UN agencies, non-governmental and community organisations, Red Cross and Red Crescent actors and humanitarian coordination structures across several regions.
Its planned response will cover countries in Asia and the Pacific; Eastern, Horn and Southern Africa; West and Central Africa; Latin America and the Caribbean; as well as selected contexts in the Middle East and North Africa.
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