Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, reports that a July 2024 poll of 1,553 voters in 14 Greater Accra constituencies indicated a presidential election that is breaking away from the usual patterns, potentially altering the landscape for both major parties, NDC and NPP.
Mussa Dankwah noted that the poll results show a significant disparity in the performance of the candidates in constituencies currently held by the NPP and NDC.
He specifically indicated that John Dramani Mahama is leading in both, a trend consistent with previous polls conducted in NPP strongholds within the region.
According to Mussa Dankwah, the poll reveals a significant lead for John Mahama in the region, with a substantial margin of 64% to 31% over Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, indicating a clear advantage for the former in the presidential race.
“However, in the constituencies where the NPP currently hold the parliamentary seats, John Mahama leads Dr. Bawumia with 54% to 37%, and in the constituencies where NDC currently hold those seats, John Mahama leads Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia 76% to 23%”.
Mussa Dankwah
Mussa Dankwah emphasized that the Greater Accra poll provides conclusive evidence, beyond a reasonable doubt, that Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako’s presence in the race will hinder Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s competitiveness.
This impact, he indicated, will be particularly significant in the Greater Accra region, where Bawumia’s campaign may struggle to gain traction.
Dankwah indicated that this empirical proof suggests that the combined support base of Kyerematen and Bediako will split the vote, making it extremely challenging for Bawumia to gain traction and be a viable contender in the region.
He pointed out that the poll’s findings indicate a significant obstacle for Bawumia’s campaign, highlighting the need for strategic reassessment to remain competitive.
According to Mussa Dankwah, the poll reveals an intriguing dynamic in the electoral landscape.
He noted that in constituencies currently held by the NDC, the combined vote share of Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako is a mere 2%.
This suggests that in these areas, the two candidates have minimal support and are unlikely to pose a significant threat to the incumbent party.
Dankwah stated that in contrast, in constituencies held by the NPP, Kyerematen and Bediako’s combined vote share increased to 9%.
He asserted that this notable difference in support levels across different constituencies highlights the complex nature of the election and the varying levels of influence wielded by different candidates in different regions.
NPP’s Grip On Dome-Kwabenya Seat Under Threat
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah stated that an analysis of the Dome-Kwabenya constituency reveals a potentially precarious situation for the NPP.
According to Dankwah, three key issues could converge to cost the NPP the seat: President Akufo-Addo’s job performance, the perceived direction of the country, and the standard of living of voters.
He noted that if the electorate views the President’s performance as unsatisfactory, and feels that the country is heading in the wrong direction, they may also hold the NPP accountable for their economic struggles.
Dankwah maintained that this potent combination of factors could lead to a loss of support for the NPP in Dome-Kwabenya, making it a crucial constituency to watch in the upcoming election.
“NPP could be on the verge unless they can reverse the polling trend. In the July 2024 poll conducted as part of the national poll, nearly 30% of voters who voted for Nana Addo in 2020 have switched to John Mahama and 23% of voters who voted for Adwoa Sarfo will now vote for Elikplim Akurugu”.
Mussa Dankwah
Mussa Dankwah further highlighted that, according to the MRP, 116 out of 276 parliamentary seats are firmly entrenched as strongholds of either the New Patriotic Party (NPP) or the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
He indicated that this leaves a significant 160 seats in a state of flux, where the outcome is far from certain.
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