According to Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, recent polls indicate that Sekyere Affram Plains is the most vulnerable parliamentary seat in the Ashanti region.
Dankwah revealed that a tiny shift of just 0.5% in voter support would be enough for the NPP to clinch the Sekyere Affram constituency.
He further noted that a substantial eleven seats out of forty-seven in the Ashanti region, roughly a quarter, are at risk of being wrested from their current holders.
“3 out of the11 of the most vulnerable seats in the region are held by the NDC and NPP hold the remaining 8. The swing required to flip them ranges from approximately 9% to 0.5%”.
“Meanwhile, in the Ashanti region, 18% of voters intend to vote for NDC candidates, while 53% will vote for NPP candidates. Nearly 8% intend to vote for other candidates, 15% remained undecided and 5.3% will not vote”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah noted that the findings indicate a substantial erosion of support for the NPP, with 8% of their 2020 parliamentary voters opting to switch to the NDC, potentially signaling a swing in voter sentiment.
He also broke down the remaining voter intentions, showing that 70% will continue to support NPP candidates, 6% will choose other options, 12% are yet to make up their minds, and 5% will abstain from voting.
According to the Pollster, a remarkable 89% of NDC’s 2020 voters will remain faithful to the party, while 5% will switch to NPP, 3% will opt for other candidates, 2% are still undecided, and a mere 1% have chosen not to vote.
Additionally, the Pollster revealed that among non-voters in the 2020 elections, a significant proportion are first-time voters, with their voting intentions breaking down as follows: 14% leaning towards NDC, 41% supporting NPP, 9% considering alternative candidates, 23% still undecided, and 13% opting out of the electoral process.
Exceptional MPs Defy Party Trends
Moreover, Mussa Dankwah noted that although many parliamentary contests will center on national issues, a select few NPP MPs have built a personal following that surpasses their party’s popularity, thanks to their exceptional ability to secure cross-party backing.
He emphasized that some MPs have built a strong grassroots presence and delivered tangible results in their constituencies, which may have enabled them to outperform their party in terms of voter appeal.
“It happens in every election, some MPs do better than their parties. Such MPs are very difficult to defeat without a clear strategy and convincing messaging. Not every NPP MP is unpopular and likewise, not every NDC MP is safe. ‘It is not my party in power’ excuse may not be a good enough message if you want to retain your seat”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah noted that a significant number of parliamentary candidates contesting the elections are oblivious to the competitive landscape they are entering, and will only grasp the reality of the race after the votes are cast on December 7th.
As such, he warned that the impending election will unleash a tidal wave of surprises across the country, with the magnitude of the shocks catching many off guard.
Dankwah further cautioned that Bryan Acheampong’s actions may significantly complicate matters for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and NPP in the upcoming December elections, potentially jeopardizing their chances of success.
“I wonder if his comments are guided by any polls that suggest that such comments are yielding positive reactions from the voters”. – Mussa Dankwah
He pointed out that politicians tend to reiterate certain statements if they think it will resonate with voters and enhance their chances of winning.
As such, Dankwah explained that, from his perspective as an analyst, he can fully comprehend why Bryan Acheampong persistently reiterates this statement.
“Maybe we need to test it with our polls. I might be wrong but it is difficult to understand if this is the right strategy to win an election”. – Mussa Dankwah
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