Ukrainian troops are rapidly advancing to capture Russian-held eastern town of Lyman, posing a new challenge for Russian leader, Vladimir Putin’s campaign in the Donbas region as he prepares to declare the region part of Russia.
A military analyst indicated that the capture of the town in the north of Donetsk region could pave the way for Ukraine to make inroads into the adjacent Luhansk province, foiling Putin’s goal of seizing all of the industrial Donbas region declared after his forces failed to subdue the entire country in February this year.
The regions are among four chunks of eastern and southern Ukrainian territory that Putin is expected today, Friday, September 30 to declare Russian-annexed land after what Kyiv and Western countries say were bogus referendums staged at gunpoint.
Putin has on several occasions threatened that Moscow could use nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory if necessary. Kyiv however noted it won’t be swayed by such threats and will press ahead with its plans to drive all Russian forces out of Ukraine.
Lyman has served for months as a logistics and transport hub anchoring Russian operations in Donetsk region’s north and its capture would be Kyiv’s biggest gain since a lightning counter-offensive retook swathes of Kharkiv region this month.
The window is narrowing for Ukraine to make major advances before winter sets in, slowing down operations and giving Russia, which has declared a partial mobilisation, more time to fortify its lines.
Konrad Muzyka, Director of the Rochan Military consultancy in Poland, stated that Russian forces are trying to hold on in Lyman to buy time to prepare defensive lines and that the town would fall to Kyiv.
“The Russians are trying to delay the Ukrainian actions as much as possible so that they can create or upgrade their line of defence between Sievierodonetsk and the border with Russia.”
Konrad Muzyka
Good news From the Front Line
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Ukrainians in his nightly speech on Tuesday that there was “good news” from the front, though he did not elaborate.
Luhansk region’s exiled governor said that “When the situation around Lyman is resolved, then we can closely watch the actions of the Ukrainian army because Lyman is close to the river and on the other bank begins Luhansk region.”“The weather doesn’t really play into our hands, but in general, I still think we’ll get the result soon,” he said.
On Thursday, a Russian proxy official in Donetsk Region said it was “pretty tense” and “difficult” in Lyman and that Kyiv’s forces are constantly trying to attack.
“Of course we understand that such attempts will continue, at the moment our units are able to repel all these attacks,” the official was quoted as saying.
Lyman has seen its role as a hub for Russian forces diminish since Moscow’s troops were routed in northeast Kharkiv region, analysts said. The town has a population of 20,000 before Russia invaded on Feb. 24.
“Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around Lyman in the past 24 to 48 hours, with both Russian and Ukrainian sources indicating that Ukrainians have advanced west, north and even northeast of Lyman,” said Karolina Hird, a researcher at the Institute for the Study of War.
“The envelopment of these positions and the collapse of this pocket around Lyman may allow – depending on how Ukrainian forces decide to pursue further gains – to unhinge this line and open up potential further advances to the east.”
Karolina Hird
John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said the fall of Lyman “would seriously complicate the Russian position in northeastern Ukraine at an absolutely minimum”. “It would probably imperil their ability” to hold Luhansk, he added.
Russia, which captured chunks of southern and eastern Ukraine in its invasion this year, annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014 and backed separatist proxies who carved out two self-styled “people’s republics” in the east.
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