The Foresight Commodity Services Inc., in its recent report, has forecast Ghana’s cocoa production in 2020/21 at 835 thousand metric tonnes, about 35 thousand metric tonnes above the previous year indicating a 4% increase in cocoa production.
The recent report named Cocoa Monthly Report, further reveals that Ghana’s graded and sealed cocoa arrivals stood at 147 thousand metric tonnes as of November 5, which is 163 thousand metric tonnes lower than what was recorded in the earlier year whilst predicting world cocoa production yield for 2020/21.
Foresight Commodity Services (FCS) estimate 2020/21 world cocoa production at a record 4,740 thousand metric tonnes, around 90 thousand metric tonnes above the earlier year’s figure. The report explains that the expected increase in 2020/21 world cocoa production from the previous year is due to larger crops in nearly all of the major producing countries. Ivory Coast’s 2020/21 cocoa crop is forecast at 2,125 thousand metric tonnes, 25 thousand metric tonnes above the previous year’s figure due to a larger mid-crop.
Also, Nigeria’s 2020/21 cocoa production is projected at 255,000 MT, up 5000 MT from a year earlier. The report indicates that Nigeria’s cocoa trade is declining as demand for the commodity shrinks further in consuming countries due to the new restrictions and lockdowns caused by the spread of COVID-19, revealed by officials and traders.
“Exporters in Nigeria complain cocoa users in Europe and America are not buying cocoa. Exporters say they cannot export due to low patronage overseas and problems associated with access to the ports in Lagos. An official with the Cocoa Association of Nigeria said there was congestion on the access roads to the ports, but added that efforts are being made by the government to solve the problems related to port access,” the report explains.
According to the report, Nigeria exports more than 70 percent of its annual cocoa production as raw beans each year due to the country’s low processing capacity that stands at 22-25 percent of national cocoa production. FCS further predicts the world cocoa grindings in 2020/21 at 4,675 thousand metric tonnes, about 45 thousand metric tonnes above the previous year, but 110 thousand metric tonnes below the record 20218/19 grindings, explaining that the expected higher 2020/21 world grindings are due to a rebound in economic growth in many countries and increasing grinding capacity in African countries.
“We estimate 2020/21 U.S. cocoa grindings at 390,000 MT, up 10,000 MT from a year earlier. Ghana’s cocoa grindings in 2020/21 are forecast at 310,000 MT, 10,000 MT above the previous year. EU 2020/21 cocoa grindings are projected at 1,475,000 MT, virtually unchanged from a year earlier, but about 55 thousand below 2018/19 grindings. Ivory Coast’s 2020/21 cocoa grindings are estimated at 610 thousand tonnes, the same as a year earlier,” the report indicates.
Touching on the cocoa future prices, the report reveals that world cocoa grindings in the last half of the 2020/21 marketing year are likely to rebound from a year earlier due to widespread availability of a vaccine for coronavirus and a recovery in world economic growth. It adds that the higher world cocoa grindings will underpin cocoa futures prices in upcoming months. Nearby cocoa futures prices in January-March are forecast to average $2525-2600 per tonne compared with $2649 a year earlier For April-June, nearby futures prices are forecast to average $2500-2575 per tonne compared with $2376 a year earlier.