You don’t expect Putin to give up easily, do you? If that man has managed to be at the helm of affairs in Russia for 23 tangible years, waged a war in a neighbouring country, endured sanctions and clamped down on critics such as Alexei Navalny, then he is sure to not throw in the towel without a long, needless fight. That man is tough!

Although he faced a 36-hour revolt by Wagner troops recently, Putin is still parading a tough exterior, giving the impression that he’s very much still in charge.

To say the Wagner revolt exposed significant weaknesses in the system of power Putin has built, will not be an overstatement.

It is clear for all eyes to see that the Russian President has become isolated from most of the world as his country is up to its neck in sanctions and he has an ICC arrest warrant hovering over his head.

As such, Putin will not travel to attend next month’s summit of the BRICS; organization that he was so instrumental in establishing. As a signatory to the ICC, the summit’s host, South Africa is legally obliged to carry out the arrest if Putin steps his foot there.

Like a magician would pull a bunny out of his hat, Russia suspended its participation in the Black sea grain agreement, stating that it would be ready to consider rejoining the deal if it sees “concrete results.” Moscow’s “concrete results” refers to restrictions on exports of Russian food and fertilizer to the world being lifted.

The deal in question, is a United Nations and Turkey-brokered pact, which allowed Ukraine to export grain safely from its Black Sea ports to other parts of the world. It helped alleviate a global food crisis as Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest grain exporters.

With the deal’s suspension, the world especially Africa, risks food shortage and increased food prices. Ukraine’s grain will also be stuck at the port, left to rot.

To drive home its demands and to emphasize its seriousness, Russia released an intense bombardment using drones and missiles which damaged critical port infrastructure in Odesa, including grain and oil terminals. The attack destroyed at least 60,000 tons of grain.

It seems Moscow wants to use “hunger games” as Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba termed, to counter Kyiv’s defences.

Will this card that Russia has pulled knock Ukraine’s defences over? Absolutely not. It will definite cause pain now but it will be rendered unsuccessful in the long run.

On Thursday, July 20, 2023, Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba met with his Pakistani counterpart, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari in Pakistan. There, he stated that Russia wanted to replace Ukrainian grain on the global market, and that “Russia is increasing its exports of grain, making more money for its war machine.”

Russia shamelessly has confirmed that this was their intention. In a statement published on the Kremlin’s website on Monday, July 24, 2023, Putin said, “Russia will continue its energetic efforts to provide supplies of grain, food products, fertilisers and other goods to Africa.”

“I want to give assurances that our country is capable of replacing the Ukrainian grain both on a commercial and free-of-charge basis.”
Vladimir Putin

This is a clear testament that Moscow is out after Kyiv’s very bloodline; destroying its cities, killing its people, causing intense misery and now, frustrating Kyiv’s grain export. All in the bid of exasperating Kyiv to give in.

What Can Ukraine Do Or Rather Not Do?

Ukraine has made some progress in improving land corridors for exporting its grain, however, the best way remains by sea. For now, Ukraine has to focus solely on its counteroffensive and leave the grain deal in UN and Turkey’s hands. After all, they are the brokers.

This is because, if Kyiv entangles itself in the grain deal web, its attention may be divided, giving Moscow the chance to wreck more havoc.

Nonetheless, it remains to be seen how long Russia will continue in its charade and if its conditions will be met or not.