The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan has taken the world by surprise. In Africa it compounds the worry and fear in countries struggling to crush Islamist insurgencies.

For over a decade now, there has been a surge in the activities of extremist groups in the East and West Africa, the Sahel and some parts of Southern Africa. Many are Islamist militant groups with some form of affiliation to Al-Qaeda, an organization the United Nations has said shares links with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Somali-based media affiliated to the home-grown Al-Shabab group hailed the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan, in what could be seen as a show of support, says London-based political analyst Ahmed Rajab.

“We are not so sure of the link between the Taliban and Al-Shabab, whether these links are opportunistic on the part of Al-Shabab or whether they are indeed organic links between the two movements.”
Rajab

However, Rajab says it’s still too early to judge, but the Taliban could even read meaning into such messages from Africa’s extremists to solidify their influence.

Moreover, the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres has warned of an “alarming” expansion of affiliates of the so-called “Islamic State” throughout Africa on the back of the situation in Afghanistan.

Al-Shabab has for many years been fighting to topple Somalia’s UN-backed government and impose strict Sharia law on the country. The group has been behind deadly attacks in Somalia and the East Africa regions.

Likewise, Nigeria’s Boko Haram group has been behind the killing of tens of thousands of people and the displacement of millions in West Africa.

In Mozambique, Islamist militants have also caused havoc after seizing much of the far-north province of Cabo Delgado. More than 2,500 people have been killed and some 700,000 have fled their homes since the insurgency began in 2017, according to the UN.

However, France has announced that by 2022 it will reduce its military presence in the Sahel Region and also served notice that it will begin process for closure of its bases in Northern Mali earmarked by the end of 2021.

France, as the former colonial power in the Sahel region, has troops in Mali since 2013. They aided local forces to oust Islamist extremists who had seized towns in Mali’s North.

Since the Taliban takeover in the wake of the US withdrawal, it has raised fears that the Sahel Region could suffer a similar fate after the French mission ends.

Security analyst and researcher for Signal Risk in South Africa, Ryan Cummings, said France will have to reconsider its decision but said there could be other political considerations since “The French presence in the Sahel has not necessarily led into either a decrease in operational capacity of extremists groups operating in this region nor has it stem the degree of violence.”

However, African governments must be on high alert. Though, the ideology of Boko Haram, Al-Shabab and other extremist groups operating in parts of Africa may not be on the level with the Taliban, but for many experts, the Taliban triumph could spur them on.