John Boadu is the likely winner of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) chairmanship race, according to a Global InfoAnalytics poll released on September 30, 2026. The survey puts the former General Secretary on 48 percent of committed delegates, ten points clear of former Energy Minister Boakye Agyarko on 38 percent, three days before delegates vote in Kumasi.

Global InfoAnalytics surveyed 3,263 delegates by telephone between September 24 and 28, and Boadu leads on both delegates’ choice and favourability. That pairing points to goodwill as well as voting intention, which matters in a contest decided by a few thousand party members.

Boadu Leads Under the Committed Delegates Model

The pollster reported its chairmanship numbers under a Committed Delegates Model, which counts only delegates who have chosen a candidate. Boadu holds 48 percent, Agyarko 38 percent, Paul Afoko 12 percent, and Sammy Crabbe 2 percent.

The ten-point gap between the top two is far wider than the stated margin of error of plus or minus 1.34 percentage points. The Executive Director of the firm, Mussa K. Dankwah, led the study.

Interviewers used Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews, drew respondents from all 16 regions and the 2026 NPP constituencies register, and reported a 98 percent confidence level with a response rate above 80 percent of calls placed.

How the Race Moved Since August

The contest looked far looser a month ago. An August 20 survey put Boadu on 27 percent, Agyarko on 15 percent and Afoko on 10 percent, with 47 percent undecided. That poll also gave Boadu a 61 percent favourable rating against 12 percent unfavourable, a net approval of 49 percent, ahead of Agyarko’s net 34 percent.

A September 2 poll of 2,581 delegates had Boadu on 23.3 percent and Agyarko on 17.7 percent. Some 41.3 percent of delegates were undecided and 12.8 percent declined to name a choice.

Measured against delegates who had picked a side, Boadu held close to half of the support in each survey. Agyarko climbed from roughly 28 percent in August to 38 percent now. The three polls used different samples, so the comparison is a guide rather than an exact trend.

Wontumi’s Endorsement and the Regional Battlegrounds

John Boadu received a boost on September 8, when the campaign of former Ashanti Regional Chairman Wontumi announced its backing in Accra. Campaign administrator Dennis Okyere Danso made the announcement after Wontumi’s withdrawal from the contest.

Dankwah argued that the endorsement matters in three of seven regions he expects to decide the race. Wontumi’s favourability stands at 47 percent in Ashanti, 41 percent in Central and 40 percent in Western.

John Boadu already led by 14 points in Central and 12 points in Western, while Agyarko led narrowly in Ashanti before the endorsement. Dankwah saw little room for movement in Eastern, Greater Accra, Northern and Volta.

Ashanti remains the region to watch. The August poll found 71 percent of respondents there undecided, the highest share of any region.

Agyarko Camp Questions the Polls

Boakye Agyarko’s camp has challenged Global InfoAnalytics from the start. After the August release, his spokesperson, Vincent Frimpong Manu, said, “This did not target those who are actually going to vote.” The firm has since drawn its sample from the party’s constituencies register rather than the wider NPP voter base.

Mr Agyarko still has a path on paper. Afoko and Crabbe together hold 14 percent, and if every one of those delegates moved to Agyarko he would reach 52 percent. The poll does not say whether they would switch, and survey responses do not always match ballots.

Vice Chairmanship Race Stays Wide Open

The race for vice chairman is far tighter. Nana Boakye leads on 21 percent, followed by Nana Akomea on 19 percent, with Mustafa Hamid and Kojo Fosu Boadu level on 17 percent. A category labelled Others holds 26 percent, the largest share in the field, so the order could change before the votes are cast.

Forty of the 50 aspirants who obtained nomination forms completed filing for the national positions. The party’s Director of Elections, Evans Nimako, said the conference in Kumasi runs from October 2 to 4. The party wants the new officers to help prepare the ground for Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s 2028 presidential campaign.

John Boadu enters the final stretch as the clear frontrunner, with Agyarko the one rival close enough to threaten him. The count in Kumasi will show whether the poll lead holds.